Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Formal bilateral peace negotiations between the United States and Iran have not occurred since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks concluded. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from the accord and subsequent "maximum pressure" sanctions regime froze official diplomatic channels. The Biden administration pursued indirect talks through Oman and Qatar on nuclear matters between 2021 and 2022, but these were technical discussions rather than formal peace rounds addressing broader US-Iran relations. A 12% probability reflects the structural difficulty of convening senior-level talks within two years, given the absence of active negotiation frameworks and the current geopolitical distance between Washington and Tehran.

Historical precedent suggests formal rounds require months of preparatory diplomacy and political alignment. The JCPOA itself took years of backchannel work before the Vienna negotiations began in earnest. Recent developments—including Iran's ballistic missile programme expansion, regional proxy activities, and the 2024 US election cycle—have not created conditions favouring high-level bilateral talks. Traders should monitor statements from the incoming US administration regarding Iran policy, any unexpected diplomatic overtures from Tehran, or shifts in regional tensions that might prompt negotiation. Reuters reported in late 2024 that Iran signalled willingness for dialogue under certain conditions, though no formal talks have been scheduled.

Liquidity on this market depends on sustained trader interest in Iran-US relations. Payment friction remains material: SEPA transfers for UK-based depositors typically settle within two business days, whilst USDC on-ramps via Klarna offer faster funding but carry variable fees depending on deposit size. Withdrawal rails similarly affect position exit costs, particularly for traders managing smaller stakes where percentage fees become meaningful.

Methodology

This page compares Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).