Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening peace talks and disrupting oil flows through the critical waterway, yet no official Iranian commitment to cease attacks has been issued. The market’s 2% YES probability reflects this reality: Tehran retains the strait as leverage and has previously demanded up to $2 million for safe passage, conditioning transit on ships not endorsing aggression against Iran[1][2].

Historically, Iran’s declarations on Hormuz have been conditional or ambiguous rather than absolute. In June 2026, Oman reported Iran “affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free safe passage,” but this was tied to dialogue with Oman on future administration, not a standalone pledge to stop attacking ships[1]. Past US demands for a public guarantee that the strait is open and vessels won’t be targeted have not yielded a binding Iranian commitment, with Tehran adamant about maintaining administrative control[4][5].

Traders should watch for an explicit, unambiguous declarative statement from the Iranian government or an authorised representative committing not to attack ships transiting Hormuz. The US is insisting Iran publicly state it will stop attacks and open all lanes, with negotiations scheduled in Oman; any breakthrough could trigger a qualifying announcement[8][9]. However, given Iran’s recent missile strikes on commercial vessels and drone deployments near the strait, the likelihood of such a pledge before the settlement deadline remains low[5]. Funding flows into this market will depend on whether payment on-ramps like Klarna and SEPA can support rapid position adjustments as these diplomatic developments unfold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).