Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,900 | 91% |
| ↓ 1,800 | 79% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 62% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 45% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 41% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 26% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 19% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 14% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 12% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 10% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 7% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 5% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,600 | 2% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 2% |
| ↑ 3,000 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,700 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,100 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,000 | 1% |
| ↓ 900 | 1% |
Market context
Ethereum must clear a higher August price level than the market currently implies, and the 1% yes probability suggests traders see that outcome as a long shot unless flows and momentum improve sharply. On comparable forecast models, August 2026 ranges are wide, but many sit well above and below one another, which is typical when the asset is being priced by a market rather than a single analyst view: one set of forecasts puts August around $1,700–$2,700, while others cluster nearer $2,300–$3,300[1][3][11][15][17].
For traders, the main watchpoints are not just spot ETH moves but the rails that make it easier to fund positions. Any rollout or expansion in fiat on-ramps, lower card or bank deposit friction, and faster withdrawal routes such as SEPA or USDC settlement can lift participation and book depth, while delays or weak liquidity can keep the market thin. The current market snapshot already shows meaningful odds at nearby strike levels — 89.5% for $1,900, 75.5% for $1,800, and 48.5% for $2,000 — which indicates that the book is being driven by relatively modest spot moves rather than a consensus on a large breakout[6].
Methodology
This page compares What price will Ethereum hit in August? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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