Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 94% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 85% |
| Game 1 Winner | 82% |
| Game 2 Winner | 82% |
| Game 3 Winner | 82% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 76% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 63% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 43% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 40% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 13% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
Market context
T1 and Team Liquid are set to face off in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Grand Final, a decisive League of Legends match scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 1 July. The crowd-implied probability of 82% favouring T1 reflects their dominant 3-0 sweep of Team Liquid in the Play-In opener, where they showcased superior comfort and tactical execution[1][10]. This result mirrors historical precedents where T1’s form in early MSI stages has consistently translated into final victories, such as Edward Gaming’s 3-2 win over SK Telecom T1 in the inaugural tournament final, though T1’s recent dominance suggests a more decisive outcome[6].
Traders should monitor official announcements regarding Fearless Draft rule adjustments and any potential schedule shifts, as these dependencies directly impact match depth and liquidity. Recent community analysis notes that Team Liquid appeared underprepared for T1’s comfort picks, a factor that could widen the gap if unaddressed[5]. The market’s traction is closely tied to funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit fees and withdrawal friction influence book depth; as these flows stabilise, the 82% probability becomes more reflective of genuine market confidence rather than speculative noise[2].
The settlement window ends on 1 July 2026, with the market resolving to T1 if they win, or Team Liquid if they secure victory. If the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or ends in a tie, the outcome defaults to 50-50. T1’s recent 3-0 victory, highlighted by Faker’s 100th career MSI win, underscores their readiness for this final[10]. As payment infrastructure improves, the market’s liquidity will likely deepen, reinforcing the current probability as a stable indicator of T1’s likelihood to prevail.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitation… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →