Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s lower-bracket quarterfinal against Mentality Monster is a best-of-three in the Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier playoffs for The International, so the market is really pricing a single elimination series rather than a longer campaign. With crowd-implied probability at 10% for Execration, the book is treating them as a clear outsider, even though their recent record includes a tournament win in Southeast Asia at the Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision in February 2025.[2][3]

That low price is consistent with how prediction markets usually handle smaller qualifier matches: liquidity is often driven less by team reputation than by whether traders can fund quickly enough to react when brackets update. On platforms where deposits clear fast through Klarna or SEPA, or where USDC on-ramp is available, order books can deepen around late schedule changes; when payment friction is higher, prices often stay thin and can overshoot until fresh capital arrives. Execration’s match history is well documented, but comparable qualifier games on esports boards tend to move most when a matchup is confirmed on live schedules rather than on pre-match name recognition alone.[1][6]

The main catalysts are bracket timing, match status, and whether the series is played on schedule. GosuGamers lists this as a live match on 2026-06-22, which matters because any delay, cancellation, or bracket reshuffle can force a 50-50 settlement under the market rules if no winner is determined within seven days of the scheduled date.[3] Traders also watch for official TO announcements and lobby starts, since a lower-bracket BO3 can turn quickly once the previous series ends and the bracket slot opens.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.