Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s BO3 with Carstensz in the The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs is the sort of Dota 2 market that often looks thin until the first reliable money arrives. The current 0% YES crowd price implies either a data lag, a severe lack of participation, or a market that has not yet been repriced off the live match state; by contrast, bookmaker-style event pages elsewhere have shown Execration priced as a clear favourite, with one market listing them at 89¢ versus Carstensz at 12¢ and another showing meaningful volume already changing hands.[2][1] In practical terms, that kind of gap matters because prediction-market depth is usually driven by fresh deposits and fast on-ramp flows, so friction from card purchases, bank transfers, or withdrawal rails can leave a market stale even when the underlying competitive picture is straightforward.[2][1]

The main comparable read-through is that Southeast Asia qualifier series tend to reprice sharply once line-ups, start times, and lobby status are confirmed, especially in BO3 formats where one map win materially changes settlement risk. For traders watching funding mechanics, the relevant catalyst is not only the match start but also whether the event is listed and resolved promptly on the platform, because delayed or incomplete matches can push outcomes into tie-style resolution rules, while walkovers and forfeits still settle to the team credited with the win.[1] Any announcement on schedule changes, broadcast start, or player no-shows can therefore move the book quickly, particularly if deposits are being made through lower-friction rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC, which tend to support faster replenishment of positions when sentiment turns.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.