Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: PDAF (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Guara Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Guara Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is a Counter-Strike 2 match between Patins da Ferrari and Guara Esports, originally set for 30 June 2026 at 6:00 PM ET in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage. Outcome verification from HLTL and Gamers World confirms Patins da Ferrari won, resolving the market to "YES" with 100% certainty[1].
Historical precedents in similar regional CS2 tournaments show that when one side holds a dominant recent form—Patins da Ferrari won four of their last five matches and sits at #150 globally, while Guara won only two of their last five—the crowd-implied probability often converges to near-certainty before kickoff[3]. Betting platforms like Sportsbet and Strafe reflected this early, pricing Patins da Ferrari at 1.11 odds with 92.9% of votes backing them, indicating minimal on-ramp friction for traders seeking exposure to a high-confidence outcome[3][4].
Traders should monitor official CCT South America schedule updates and any post-match roster announcements, as these dependencies can affect future book depth and funding flows. Recent Strafe user data confirms overwhelming confidence in Patins da Ferrari, suggesting that deposit and withdrawal rails (including Klarna and SEPA) are already aligned with the market’s liquidity needs[3]. With the settlement window ending 1 July 2026 at 04:00 UTC, the event’s resolution is complete, and payout processing typically occurs within one hour of verification[5].
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Patins da Ferrari vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
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