Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 70% |
| Map 1 Winner | 64% |
| Map 2 Winner | 64% |
| Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
Market context
Metizport and Johnny Speeds are due to meet in a best-of-three in Stake Pulse Beat I Group D, and the market’s 64% crowd-implied chance for Metizport is broadly consistent with the head-to-head record. Recent comparables lean slightly towards Metizport: Strafe lists 10 previous meetings with Metizport winning six, while another results archive shows Metizport ahead 3-2 across five CS2 series, with the latest meeting in February 2026 won 2-1 by Metizport[5][13]. That history matters because BO3 pricing often reflects map depth rather than one-off upset potential, so a mid-60s probability usually signals a modest favourite rather than a dominant edge[3][5][13].
For this market, the main tradeable catalysts are not only the match itself but whether the event starts on time and finishes cleanly inside the settlement window. The listed start times vary across live pages, with one source showing 10:00 UTC and another 15:00 UTC, so traders should watch the organiser schedule and any last-minute server or bracket updates closely[2][3][5][10]. Funding frictions also shape book depth: deposits that clear quickly, such as card or bank-linked on-ramps, tend to support tighter prices, while slower rails like SEPA can delay participation, and USDC can keep larger balances mobile once funds are in place. That matters in smaller esports markets, where a burst of fresh liquidity can move the implied probability more than the underlying team news.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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