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Market statistics
- Total volume
- $544K
- 24h volume
- $544K
- Liquidity
- $112K
- Open interest
- $116K
Available prediction outcomes (16)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Bitcoin's price action on a specific calendar date depends on macroeconomic releases, regulatory announcements, and institutional positioning that typically cluster around monthly economic data or central bank communications. June 2nd falls mid-week, outside major US employment or inflation release windows, though European economic data or unexpected geopolitical developments could move spot prices materially.
Historical precedent suggests single-day price targets rarely settle at exact levels; Bitcoin's typical daily range sits between 2–5% of spot price depending on volatility regime. The 0% crowd probability reflects the specificity required—hitting a precise price point rather than a price range. Comparable single-date settlement markets on Bitcoin show low liquidity when outcomes depend on intraday volatility rather than directional conviction, as traders prefer range-bound or directional markets with clearer resolution criteria.
Catalysts to monitor include ECB or Bank of England policy signals in late May, any US inflation surprises, and institutional custody announcements that affect on-ramp friction. Funding costs on major exchanges—particularly USDC settlement rails and SEPA deposit delays—influence whether large orders execute on specific dates or get deferred. Recent volatility clustering around Fed communications (as tracked through CME FedWatch data) suggests macro calendars drive book depth more than technical levels. Traders should watch deposit queue times on major platforms; extended SEPA settlement windows or Klarna payment delays can push execution into subsequent trading sessions, reducing the probability of hitting specific intraday targets.
Methodology
This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on June 2? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on PolyGram?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and PolyGram converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- PolyGram charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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