When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly confirmed GPT-5.6, but the market is effectively trading the odds of a public release before the settlement window closes. A zero per cent crowd price usually implies either strong scepticism about timing or thin participation, and that matters on a venue where book depth depends on funds getting in quickly enough to move the line. Friction around deposits, card processing, and withdrawal rails can matter as much as the underlying event: if users can move money in with Klarna or SEPA and cash out through a reliable rail such as USDC, turnover tends to improve and stale prices can correct faster.

The nearest comparable pattern is the short-release cadence seen through GPT-5.4 and GPT-5.5, which one recent report described as roughly six weeks apart, with GPT-5.6 expected in late June[1]. That same report said OpenAI’s chief scientist had called GPT-5.6 a “meaningful improvement” and linked it to a broader ChatGPT overhaul[1]. Another source reported a Codex backend routing log entry for GPT-5.6 before any official launch signal, while noting that Polymarket pricing had already moved sharply higher on a public release by 30 June[3]. Those are not confirmations, but they explain why some traders treat the market as a timing trade rather than a binary yes/no on technical readiness.

The main catalysts are still simple: an OpenAI announcement, a product blog post, or a visible update to ChatGPT, Codex, or model-routing logs that names GPT-5.6 directly[1][3][4]. The market description says even a direct successor branded as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8 would count, and specialised variants such as Codex or other task-focused releases also qualify, so traders will watch for any version bump that reaches the public rather than a closed test[4]. With the settlement window ending on 28 June at 00:00 UTC, any late-June launch, staggered rollout, or subscription-tier-only release could still settle this market if it is publicly available in the required sense[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.