Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer temperatures in July routinely exceed 30°C, with overnight lows typically remaining in the mid-to-high 20s. The lowest temperature recorded on any given day in mid-July reflects the tail end of nocturnal cooling before dawn, influenced by humidity, cloud cover, and proximity to the Huangpu River. Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows July minimums rarely drop below 22°C; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that temperatures will remain above the lowest bracket offered by this market's resolution categories.

Comparable July days at Pudong reveal seasonal consistency: the past five years show minimum temperatures clustering between 23–27°C on mid-month dates, with exceptional cooling events tied to typhoon systems or upper-level troughs. The China Meteorological Administration publishes daily forecasts and historical records that feed into Wunderground's archive, the settlement source here. No major weather disruption is currently forecast for Shanghai in mid-July 2026, which anchors the crowd's confidence in warmer-than-baseline outcomes.

Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers to build positions in lower-temperature brackets face standard settlement timelines; withdrawals process through the same rails once the market resolves on 19 July at 12:00 UTC. Liquidity depth depends on whether competing forecasters believe the crowd's baseline is miscalibrated—a view that would require conviction about either an unusual cooling event or systematic underpricing of tail-risk scenarios in Shanghai's summer climate.

Methodology

This page compares Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).