Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. Late May in Tokyo typically sees highs between 25–28°C as the city transitions into early summer, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's observation window in Japan Standard Time.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent liquidity rather than meteorological certainty. Historical May 25th data from Tokyo shows considerable year-to-year variance: recent decades have recorded highs ranging from 21°C in cooler years to 31°C during anomalously warm springs. El Niño and La Niña patterns influence late-spring temperatures across East Asia, and the 2025–2026 oceanic cycle will shape atmospheric conditions heading into the settlement date. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in early May 2026 will provide the most actionable signal for traders positioning ahead of the window close.

Book depth on this market depends on payment friction reduction. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers face settlement delays that compress the effective trading window; USDC on-ramps eliminate this lag but require crypto familiarity. As liquidity pools deepen through May, withdrawal rails become material—traders holding winning positions need confidence in redemption timelines across fiat and stablecoin rails. Early positioning by weather-focused traders typically arrives 7–10 days before settlement, when forecast confidence stabilises.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.