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Highest temperature in Paris on August 9?

Fastest route to "Highest temperature in Paris on August 9?": payment methods and processing times across the four comparable platforms.

34°C 42% 33°C 31% 35°C 14% 32°C 10% Volume: $77K Liquidity: $22K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Highest temperature in Paris on August 9?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
42% 58% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
42% 58% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
34°C42%
33°C31%
35°C14%
32°C10%
31°C3%
28°C or below1%
29°C1%
30°C1%
36°C0%
37°C0%
38°C or higher0%

Market context

The key question is whether Paris-Le Bourget Airport tops out in the mid-30s Celsius or lands closer to the low-30s, because this market resolves on the **Daily Observations** table for the station, not the broader summary figures. Short-range forecasts for Paris on 9 August point to a warm day, with highs around 30°C to 34°C from different providers and the weekend described as hotter and largely sunny, which keeps the upper outcomes live but far from guaranteed.[8][9][7]

The current **1% yes** price is notably low relative to comparable hot-weather episodes, especially after France’s recent run of extreme summer heat and the fourth heatwave of the season, which has already pushed Paris into the low-to-mid 30s at times.[12][11] For this kind of temperature market, traders usually care less about the headline forecast than about whether deposits clear in time, because tighter funding rails tend to concentrate liquidity around the most active hours; when payment friction is low, book depth is often better on the near-at-the-money outcomes, while sparse flow can leave the tails underpriced. In practice, that means the market is sensitive to fresh cash arriving via quick on-ramps such as **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC** withdrawals and redeposits.

Catalysts are straightforward: the final daytime temperature in Paris depends on cloud cover, wind and any late showers, so traders should watch the latest met forecasts for Paris and the Île-de-France region, along with any hot-or-thunderstorm updates from local forecasters.[8][9] Because the settlement source is Weather Underground’s station table, the decisive print is the observed maximum at Paris-Le Bourget rather than the marketing-style daily high, so a brief afternoon spike or an errant station reading can matter more than the day’s average tone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Paris on August 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
How fast is SEPA deposit?
SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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