Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of this weather market, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily peak for KLGA in degrees Fahrenheit. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders view a specific temperature threshold as virtually impossible, yet the frontrunner for the event is 98–99°F at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 20%, indicating active positioning around high summer heat rather than dismissal of the event itself [1].

Historical July highs at LaGuardia frequently exceed 95°F, with several years reaching 98°F or more during heatwaves, framing the 0% YES probability as a potential mispricing if the threshold in question is below typical peak summer readings. Comparable cases from the National Weather Service’s historical dataset show that mid-July temperatures in NYC often cluster in the 90s, making extreme heat outcomes statistically plausible and challenging the market’s current zero-probability stance [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the New York area and Wunderground’s real-time KLGA updates as the day progresses, since sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns can push temperatures toward the 98–99°F range. A recent heat advisory issued for the Northeast by weather authorities underscores the volatility of summer conditions and the importance of tracking live data feeds before settlement closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.