Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until that publication occurs. June sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical June records show Hong Kong has recorded maxima exceeding 35°C in the month, with the Observatory's long-term dataset providing clear precedent for both moderate and extreme outcomes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see limited appetite to commit capital to this market, a pattern often linked to friction in deposit flows rather than genuine conviction about temperature outcomes. Payment rails—whether SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, or USDC on-ramps—directly affect whether traders can access sufficient liquidity to build positions, and low book depth typically correlates with higher withdrawal friction or delayed settlement timelines.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any monsoon onset announcements in late May or early June, as these shift precipitation patterns and cloud cover that moderate daytime peaks. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June, though actual data publication may lag by several days. For traders evaluating entry, deposit confirmation times and fee structures across available payment methods will determine whether position sizing aligns with the market's current traction and liquidity depth.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.