Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on the final day of May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the primary meteorological station for the region. Late May in Seoul typically sits in the warm season, with historical highs around 28–30°C, though the city experiences considerable year-to-year variation depending on whether early monsoon systems have arrived. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical records for that specific station, accessible via the linked interface where users can toggle between Celsius and Fahrenheit to verify the exact reading.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that extreme heat is impossible. Seoul's May 31st highs have ranged from 21°C to 32°C across recent decades, with no single outcome dominating. The absence of trading activity suggests limited liquidity depth on this particular resolution date, a common pattern for weather markets with narrow settlement windows. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails will find book depth typically builds as the event date approaches and weather forecasts solidify into firmer predictions, usually within 7–10 days of settlement.

Catalysts for price movement include the Korean Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, which typically release updated 10-day outlooks weekly. Any significant weather system—early monsoon onset, heat dome formation, or unusual atmospheric blocking—would shift probabilities materially. Current seasonal patterns suggest late May sits at the boundary between spring and early summer conditions, making mid-range outcomes (26–29°C) statistically more frequent than extremes. Traders should monitor KMA announcements and global climate indices tracking potential anomalies in East Asian weather patterns through May.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.