Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily high temperature, and this market segments outcomes into ranges from below 15°C to above 30°C. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, which captures hourly readings throughout the day. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA will need to commit capital weeks in advance, as the event sits roughly eighteen months out and liquidity typically concentrates closer to resolution windows.

May weather in the Paris region clusters around 18–23°C on average, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability on the highest-temperature ranges suggests either thin initial order flow or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will settle. Comparable May 31st data from prior years at Le Bourget shows variability: some years peak near 20°C under cloud cover, whilst others breach 25°C under high-pressure systems. This spread reflects the genuine difficulty of pinpointing late-spring temperatures five seasons ahead.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting models beginning in late May 2026, particularly outputs from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Withdrawal rails via SEPA or stablecoin bridges become relevant once positions close; early liquidity providers may face slippage if the book remains shallow. Atmospheric patterns in early summer—including jet-stream positioning and North Atlantic oscillation phases—will drive actual outcomes, though these remain largely unpredictable at current lead times.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.