Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's daily high temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. June in Beijing typically sees highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-to-high 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must deposit and place positions well before the morning observation period concludes in Beijing local time.

Historical June temperatures at the airport station show that readings above 35°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this month, whilst readings below 25°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to attract early positions. Comparable markets on Chinese weather data have historically drawn deeper books once deposit rails activate; Klarna's SEPA integration and USDC on-ramp typically see uptake surge 72 hours before settlement windows, which would shift implied probabilities materially if traders gain conviction on seasonal patterns or anomalies.

Watch for China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which often trigger repositioning in temperature markets. El Niño or La Niña phase data from late 2025 will inform whether the 2026 monsoon season arrives early or late, affecting mid-June conditions. Withdrawal friction via Klarna or direct bank transfer can suppress late-stage trading activity, so book depth may thin sharply in the final 24 hours despite genuine uncertainty about the outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.