World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently underway, and the focus for this market is on how many penalty kicks taken during regular, stoppage, or extra time are missed or saved, excluding shootouts. With the crowd-implied probability of a “Yes” settlement sitting at just 4%, the market suggests that a high tally of missed penalties is seen as unlikely, despite the tournament’s early stages.

Historically, missed penalties in World Cups are rare but impactful. Roberto Baggio’s 1994 final miss remains the most iconic, yet even in high-stakes matches, most penalties convert. Across 35 World Cup penalty shoot-outs, only two reached sudden death, and excluding shootouts, the most missed by an individual is just two, achieved by Asamoah Gyan in 2006 and 2010[6]. The 2026 tournament has already seen its first official penalty scored by Switzerland, with Breel Embolo converting cleanly[2]. These cases frame the current 4% probability as consistent with historical conversion rates.

Traders should monitor upcoming fixtures involving teams with high penalty-taking records, such as Argentina and England, and watch for any referee decisions that award spot-kicks in tight matches. Lionel Messi and Harry Kane now share the record for most penalties taken in World Cup history, with six each, though both have missed only once or twice[5]. Any increase in aggressive defending or controversial refereeing could raise the chance of missed penalties. Recent coverage from beIN Sports highlights Messi and Kane’s record and the evolving penalty dynamics in 2026[5]. Market depth will likely grow as deposit and withdrawal flows through Klarna, SEPA, and USDC rails increase, linking funding activity to book liquidity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.