Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 31 July will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily minimum reading, published in one decimal place after the day’s extract is finalised. In late July, the city is usually warm and humid, with average lows around 27–28°C, so outcomes much below that band tend to require rain bands, thunderstorms, or a broader weather disruption rather than a normal seasonal pattern.[1][2][18]

That framing explains why the crowd’s 3% YES looks like a pure tail case. The Observatory’s own July records show that the month’s lowest minima are typically clustered in the high-20s, while a notably cooler 31 July in 2019 fell to 24.5°C amid heavy rain from Wipha.[2][4] A year like 2022 also saw 1 July reach just 25.4°C, showing that sharply cooler readings can happen, but they are still unusual against the month’s baseline.[12]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s rainfall and any sudden cooling from showers or rainbands, because those can pull the minimum down before the 31 July daily extract is locked in. The practical market angle is less about the weather itself than about money in and money out: easier deposits and withdrawals through Klarna, SEPA, or USDC can widen participation and deepen the book, while friction on funding rails tends to leave these thin weather contracts more prone to sharp repricing on a single fresh Observatory reading.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.