Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature reached during that calendar day, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset, with settlement occurring after official data release. Hong Kong's July temperatures typically range between 24–28°C at their daily minimum, though the city's subtropical monsoon climate and urban heat island effect create variability depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and whether tropical cyclones approach the region.

Historical July minima in Hong Kong cluster tightly around 25–26°C, with readings below 24°C occurring rarely and only during anomalous weather events such as tropical cyclone passage or unusual upper-level troughs. The 0% crowd probability reflects the statistical improbability of extreme cooling on a single July day rather than any fundamental market dysfunction. Comparable July dates show consistent overnight lows in the mid-to-high 20s, establishing a baseline against which traders can calibrate their range selections.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in early July 2026, as these represent the primary catalysts for temperature deviation. Deposit and withdrawal infrastructure—including SEPA transfers, Klarna's deferred payment options, and USDC settlement rails—determines how quickly capital can flow into the market as weather forecasts sharpen. Book depth typically increases as the settlement date approaches and meteorological data becomes more certain, though liquidity remains dependent on funding accessibility across payment methods.

Methodology

This page compares Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).