Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington Airport will record a single highest temperature on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius at the official station. The market resolves based on Wunderground's historical data for that date, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails will need to account for settlement timing when planning withdrawal schedules; liquidity depth depends on how many participants fund positions ahead of the event window closing.

May in Wellington typically sits in early autumn, with mean daily highs around 13–15°C and occasional warm northerly flows pushing readings into the low 20s. Historical precedent from comparable late-May days shows the 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus certainty—previous years have produced ranges from 10°C to 22°C depending on synoptic patterns. The current flat book suggests minimal capital has committed to any single temperature band, a common state for weather markets with low deposit friction but high volatility.

The key catalyst is the Southern Hemisphere weather pattern developing in early May 2026. MetService forecasts and NIWA climate outlooks released in April will signal whether a high-pressure system or frontal system dominates the region. Traders should monitor Wunderground's forecast model updates in the week preceding 26 May; sudden shifts in predicted highs often precede actual temperature swings. USDC settlement availability may accelerate position exits once the forecast solidifies, potentially concentrating liquidity in the final 48 hours before the window closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.