Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. May sits in Wellington's autumn season, when daily highs typically range between 12–16°C, though variability is substantial depending on wind patterns and frontal systems moving across the Cook Strait. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders have until early afternoon local time to monitor final readings before resolution.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty. Wellington's May temperatures have historically produced maxima spanning 8–22°C across different years; the 2015 May average high was 14°C, whilst May 2017 saw peaks near 19°C. Comparable autumn weather markets on this platform have typically drawn trading activity once seasonal forecasts solidify and local news outlets publish extended outlooks. The New Zealand MetService publishes its official May outlook in late April, which often catalyses initial positioning in Southern Hemisphere weather markets.

Traders should monitor the MetService's May 2026 forecast release and any significant pressure systems forecast to affect the lower North Island in the week preceding 25 May. Deposit friction remains material for UK-based participants; Klarna's three-payment option and SEPA transfers typically settle within 2–3 business days, whilst USDC on-ramps offer immediate liquidity for those already holding stablecoins. Book depth in this market will likely correlate with funding inflows during the forecast window, as seasonal weather markets historically see concentrated trading once meteorological data becomes actionable.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.