Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific high-temperature outcome, reflecting the market’s view that the day will likely remain cool and wet. Historical data for Wellington in June shows average daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F (14°C to 12°C), with overcast conditions prevailing 42% of the time[4]. Recent observations confirm gales, heavy rain, and temperatures near 15°C (59°F), with wind speeds at 38 km/h and humidity at 72%[2]. A notable anomaly occurred earlier in June when Wellington beat its record maximum June temperature with over 19°C recorded, but this was an isolated spike rather than a trend[5].

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements for any shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover that could elevate temperatures, as well as Wunderground’s hourly updates for real-time validation[5]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, so late-morning forecasts are critical. While no specific weather announcement has been made for 26 June yet, the prevailing south-south-westerly flow and rising pressure (996mb) suggest continued cool conditions[2]. Funding flows into this market remain thin, likely due to on-ramp friction for depositors using Klarna or SEPA, which limits book depth. As withdrawal rails like USDC become more integrated, liquidity may improve, but current traction is tied to the ease of depositing and fee structures rather than weather volatility alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.