Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific outcome, suggesting the market views that particular temperature range as virtually impossible given prevailing conditions.

Historical patterns frame this low probability: June in Wellington typically sees average highs falling from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C), with overcast skies dominating 42% of days [3]. Yet recent records defy the norm—MetService confirmed Wellington already surpassed its maximum June temperature, recording over 19°C earlier this month [5]. This anomaly, combined with today’s forecast of 12°C highs amid strong south-south-westerly winds and rain [2], indicates volatility that could push temperatures beyond typical ranges, making the 0% figure a reflection of current uncertainty rather than absolute impossibility.

Traders should monitor MetService’s daily updates and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s climate bulletins for shifts in wind patterns or unexpected heat spikes [5]. The settlement window closes 2026-06-25T12:00:00Z, so any announcement of record-breaking warmth before then could reshape book depth. Funding flows driving this market’s traction remain tied to payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit fees and withdrawal speed influence trader participation and liquidity. As with similar weather markets, catalysts such as sudden pressure changes or unseasonal warmth will determine whether the 0% probability holds or collapses.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.