Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a “YES” outcome at 0%. Historical data for June at this station shows average daily highs falling from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C), with overcast or mostly cloudy conditions occurring about 42% of the time[2]. Notably, MetService NZ recently confirmed Wellington surpassed its record maximum June temperature earlier in the month, with over 19°C recorded on 1–2 June, suggesting that while extreme warmth is possible, it is an outlier rather than a norm for mid-June[4]. This context frames the current 0% probability as a rational assessment that temperatures will likely remain within the typical cool range, not exceeding the threshold required for a “YES” settlement.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts and any sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions, particularly light rain and moderate breezes expected on 24 June, which BBC Weather reports will cap highs at 15°C (59°F)[5]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for the day, making real-time data updates critical; any unforecasted heatwave would need to be exceptionally strong to overturn current odds. While no major announcements are scheduled, the dependency on a single data source means traders must watch for potential gaps or anomalies in Wunderground’s reporting. Recent market activity on similar Wellington temperature events, such as the June 23 and June 22 markets, indicates consistent liquidity but no significant deviation from historical patterns[3][7]. The book depth here is driven by funding flows tied to payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit friction and withdrawal fees directly influence trader participation and market traction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.