Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington Airport’s **highest temperature on 21 June** is the event, and the market is effectively pricing where the day’s maximum will land at the airport station rather than whether it will be warm by local standards. The current 0% YES implies the crowd sees the wrong bucket as having no chance, which is unusual for a live weather market and tends to reflect either very thin participation or a sharply one-sided view of the day’s cap. June at Wellington International Airport is normally cool, with average daily highs around 54–57°F, so outcomes above the mid-teens Celsius are not the default seasonal expectation.[5][8]

The closest comparison from recent Wellington weather markets is that short-dated temperature books can reprice quickly once the observed maximum starts to separate from the expected range; one June Wellington market showed a frontrunner outcome fixed at 100%, while another nearby day split more conventionally around the mid-teens Celsius.[1][7] For a market like this, book depth will usually depend less on the forecast itself than on funding friction: traders who can deposit cheaply and withdraw cleanly through rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC are more likely to keep sizing in the book, while higher on-ramp costs can leave the crowd probability stuck at extremes even when the weather outlook is not that clear.

For catalysts, traders should watch the airport forecast, any MetService updates, and the live Wunderground station readout as the day develops, because Wellington’s coastal winds can keep daytime highs pinned lower than nearby inland readings.[2][4] BBC Weather currently points to a cool, breezy Sunday with showers and a forecast high around 11°C to 18°C, which is broadly consistent with a low-ceiling temperature market rather than a breakout heat case.[2] If the airport observation starts trending towards the upper teens, the main driver will be whether that move happens early enough before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, since late-afternoon warmth would not matter for resolution.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.