Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's weather on 25 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market, with the highest temperature recorded at Pearson International Airport serving as the resolution metric. May in Toronto typically sees daytime highs between 18–22°C, though late-spring heat waves can push readings into the high 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending deposit infrastructure maturity on the platform.

Historical May temperatures at Pearson show considerable variance. The station recorded 29.4°C on 25 May 2012 and 26.1°C on 25 May 2018, whilst cooler years saw highs around 15–17°C. This range—spanning roughly 14°C—reflects the unpredictability of late spring in southern Ontario, where Arctic air masses can linger or early summer heat can establish itself. Comparable North American markets tracking single-day temperature extremes typically see activity concentrated in the final 48 hours before settlement, when weather models stabilise and traders with verified payment methods (SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, USDC on-ramps) position accordingly.

Catalysts for trading traction include Environment Canada's extended forecast releases, typically issued five to seven days before 25 May. Atmospheric pressure patterns and jet-stream positioning in late April 2026 will signal whether ridge-building high pressure or trough-driven cool air dominates. Traders should monitor deposit fee structures and withdrawal rails—platforms offering lower SEPA minimums and faster Klarna settlement cycles tend to see deeper order books on weather markets, as retail participation increases when friction decreases.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.