Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's weather on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, the primary meteorological station for the Greater Toronto Area. Historical data from Environment and Climate Change Canada shows that late May temperatures in Toronto typically range between 18–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature bands available or have not yet engaged with this seasonal forecast market. Without access to the specific temperature ranges offered (e.g., 15–18°C, 18–21°C, 21–24°C, 24°C+), the current odds reflect minimal liquidity rather than a consensus view on May weather patterns.

Spring weather volatility in southern Ontario depends on Arctic air masses retreating northward and Pacific systems bringing moisture. The National Weather Service and Environment Canada typically issue 10-day forecasts by mid-May, which will be the primary catalyst for trader positioning in late April and early May 2026. Deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails may suppress early participation in this niche weather market; traders requiring fiat on-ramps often wait until forecast confidence solidifies closer to the settlement window. Book depth will likely accumulate in the final two weeks before 24 May as meteorological models converge and traders can fund accounts with lower withdrawal friction through established payment corridors.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.