Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current market data shows the frontrunner outcome is 29°C with a 100% implied probability, while the user’s query notes a 0% YES probability for an unspecified range, suggesting a mismatch between the stated query and the live book. Historical patterns for Toronto in early July indicate daily highs typically cluster around 79°F (26°C), rarely dipping below 70°F (21°C) or exceeding 89°F (32°C), with the peak average occurring on 20 July at 80°F (27°C). This context frames the 29°C frontrunner as a plausible but slightly elevated outcome, consistent with recent heatwave trends that have pushed summer temperatures above historical norms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service updates for CYYZ and Wunderground’s daily high records, as these are the official resolution sources. A recent summer 2026 heatwave has shattered temperature records across North America, with stations like San Antonio recording 89°F on 3 July, indicating a broader climatic shift that may influence Toronto’s peak temperature. The settlement window closes at noon on 9 July 2026, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions based on morning forecasts. Deposit and withdrawal friction via Klarna, SEPA, and USDC rails could impact book depth, as funding flows often drive liquidity in weather-linked prediction markets. Traders must watch for any sudden shifts in forecast models or official station data that could alter the 29°C frontrunner status.

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Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.