Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 26 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market, with the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport Station serving as the resolution metric. Late May typically sits within Tokyo's late spring window, characterised by warming trends ahead of the rainy season. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows May temperatures at Haneda ranging from 20–28°C in recent years, though outlier heat events have pushed readings toward 30°C during anomalous years.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus bearishness. Comparable May forecasting markets show modest liquidity until the settlement window approaches within 72 hours, when deposit flows via Klarna and SEPA rails typically accelerate trader positioning. Early-season weather markets often see shallow order books until payment friction reduces—traders frequently wait for clearer forecasts before committing capital through on-ramp channels.

Watch Japan Meteorological Agency ten-day forecasts released weekly; these drive material repricing in similar weather markets. The Japan Meteorological Corporation publishes seasonal outlooks that occasionally flag anomalous warming patterns. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric pressure systems developing over the Pacific, which influence whether high-pressure ridges push warm air into the Kanto region. Settlement finalises at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once actual morning temperatures are recorded.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.