Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current market pricing assigns a 100% probability to the 30°C band, while the 29°C outcome sits at a 31.5% implied chance on alternative platforms, reflecting divergent trader sentiment despite the official frontrunner status [1][2].

Historical July temperatures in Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 31°C and 32°C, with recent forecasts indicating maximum daytime highs reaching 31°C and overnight lows near 25°C [3]. Japan’s meteorological agency recently recorded a national high of 41.2°C in Tamba city, underscoring the region’s capacity for extreme heat, though Haneda’s coastal position usually moderates extremes compared to inland areas [7].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily observation schedules and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or wind patterns that could alter the day’s peak temperature. The market’s book depth correlates directly with funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit friction and withdrawal fees influence liquidity entry [2]. Recent trading volume of $8,757, concentrated almost entirely in the final 24 hours, signals that trader participation is tightly linked to on-ramp efficiency and fee structures rather than long-term weather speculation [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.