Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that value. Historical July data for Haneda shows daily highs typically between 28°C and 33°C, with averages near 31°C, while recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs spanning 26°C to 32°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome appears inconsistent with the frontrunner "25°C" holding 50% and "24°C" at 36%, suggesting market depth is driven by funding flows rather than genuine uncertainty about the temperature range.

Traders should monitor lingering tsuyu frontal activity or stalled low-pressure systems that could suppress Tokyo’s maximum temperature below 27°C, pushing outcomes toward the 25°C bracket. Recent analysis from Lines.com highlights how such meteorological dependencies directly influence book depth, as deposit fees and withdrawal rails like SEPA and USDC shape the liquidity available to bet on these shifts. The market’s traction correlates with payment friction: lower on-ramp costs attract more capital, deepening the book and stabilising odds around the historically probable 25–27°C range.

No moralising is needed on whether to trade; the facts show July in Tokyo is consistently hot and humid, with sea breezes moderating extremes but not preventing highs above 25°C. The settlement window ending 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z ensures resolution relies solely on Wunderground’s recorded peak, making the 0% implied probability for any outcome a clear mispricing given the 50% frontrunner status of 25°C. Funding flows from Klarna and SEPA deposits continue to drive the market’s depth, reinforcing the likelihood of outcomes within the 24–27°C range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.