Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently pricing zero probability for a "YES" resolution. This implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite historical data showing July highs in Haneda typically reaching 28–33°C (82–91°F) with stable daytime conditions [5][1]. The settlement hinges on a Wunderground data point, meaning traders must scrutinise whether the forecasted 31°C high with rain and cloud cover for that Sunday [7] aligns with the range threshold, as even a minor deviation could invalidate the current 0% implied probability.

Historical July patterns in Haneda show daily highs consistently between 76°F and 91°F (24–33°C), with an average of 85°F (29°C), suggesting the 0% probability is likely a mispricing unless the range is exceptionally narrow [1][6]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that rain and cloud cover, as forecast for 5 July, often suppress peak temperatures slightly below the monthly average, yet rarely drop them below 25°C [7]. Traders should watch for any sudden shifts in the local weather schedule or official announcements from the National Weather Service regarding temperature anomalies, as these dependencies directly influence the Wunderground resolution source [2]. Recent forecasts confirm a high of 31°C with 80% precipitation chance, a catalyst that could push the actual reading below the wagered range if the cloud cover persists [7].

The market's traction is intrinsically linked to funding flows, where deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA rails dictates book depth and liquidity for such weather-specific bets. Traders caring about withdrawal fees and USDC on-ramps must recognise that low liquidity on a 0% priced market increases slippage risk, making the entry cost higher than the apparent value. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests a lack of confidence in the range being hit, yet the stable 28–33°C baseline [5] contradicts this extreme pessimism. As settlement approaches on 5 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the interplay between weather volatility and payment rail efficiency will determine whether the book depth can absorb the inevitable correction in pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.