Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Historical data frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific range as highly conservative; July in Tokyo is the hottest and most humid month, with average highs exceeding 28.7°C and a hot season lasting from late June to mid-September [3][7]. Recent records show Japan hitting an all-time high of 41.2°C in 2025, while local forecasts for July 2026 predict daily highs ranging from 26°C to 33°C, suggesting that temperatures well above 26°C are statistically probable rather than anomalous [2][5].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s heatwave warnings and daily weather schedules, as extreme humidity and cloud cover can suppress peak readings despite high ambient heat [8][9]. A recent Reuters report highlighted Japan’s record-breaking heat in 2025, establishing a precedent for escalating summer temperatures that could drive this market’s outcome higher [5]. The market’s traction correlates directly with funding flows; as deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails decreases, book depth expands, allowing larger positions to be taken on these high-probability heat events. Withdrawal liquidity in USDC further incentivises capital entry, linking payment efficiency to the market’s ability to absorb significant volume on temperature forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).