Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 27 July will be measured at Haneda Airport, and late July is normally among the hottest and stickiest parts of the city’s calendar. Historical July conditions in Tokyo are typically around 25–33°C with humidity near 77–80%, and short, intense showers are common, so the day’s peak can still be set by a brief midday surge rather than a prolonged heatwave.[1]

The current crowd price of 0% YES looks disconnected from the usual July baseline. Comparable market pricing on Polymarket already clusters around the low-30s Celsius, with 30°C leading and 31°C also trading prominently, which is more consistent with Tokyo’s seasonal profile than a zero-probability outcome.[2] For a weather settlement market like this, the main uncertainty is not whether July can be hot, but whether cloud cover, rain bands, or a cooler maritime flow suppresses the day’s maximum below the higher buckets.

Traders watching for book depth should focus on payment and on-ramp friction as much as weather itself, because easier deposits tend to widen participation and tighten spreads. Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC each affect different parts of that flow: card-linked instant funding can bring in smaller retail orders quickly, SEPA supports lower-cost euro deposits but with settlement delays, and USDC can route larger balances with fewer bank-rail frictions. The key catalyst for this market is any forecast shift from the Japan Meteorological Agency or major weather services around the Tokyo area, especially if an alert-level hot spell develops before the noon UTC settlement cut-off.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).