Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 24 July will be set by the afternoon peak at Haneda Airport, where midsummer normals are already near 30°C and humidity can keep the day feeling oppressive even before any heatwave develops.[1][2] For a market priced at **0% YES**, the key issue is not whether Tokyo is warm, but whether the day’s observed maximum lands inside the specific settlement band; even a small overshoot or a cloudy, rain-disrupted afternoon can move the result away from the obvious base case.[1]

Historical and comparable Tokyo July cases usually resolve through routine summer warmth rather than extremes, which means the market is mainly reading how tightly traders expect the airport observation to cluster around the seasonal mean.[1] That matters for flow because this kind of weather contract tends to attract smaller, opportunistic orders rather than large directional books, and funding friction can shape depth: deposits that clear quickly through Klarna or SEPA can widen participation, while users who prefer USDC or fast withdrawal rails may be more willing to recycle balances into short-dated books. In practical terms, thinner on-ramp conversion often leaves a market more exposed to a few well-timed bets than to broad consensus.

The main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, any change in Japanese Meteorological Agency heat or rain outlooks, and the actual development of cloud cover and sea-breeze effects through the Tokyo afternoon.[1][2] The resolution source is a single airport station reading, so traders will watch whether Haneda tracks above or below the local urban forecast rather than Tokyo city averages; that dependence on one official history page makes late-session price moves more sensitive to fresh meteorological guidance than to general summer expectations.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.