Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 23 July will be set by the day’s actual weather at the airport, with the market settling on the Celsius band that contains the top reading reported by Wunderground. With the book currently implying 0% for **YES** on the market as framed, the practical issue is not whether Tokyo can get hot in late July, but whether the airport’s recorded peak reaches the next bracket above the crowded 35°C outcome already dominating nearby pricing.[1][2]

That 35°C anchor fits the seasonal pattern: Tokyo in July is typically hot and humid, with average daytime temperatures around 25–33°C and feels-like conditions often much higher.[2] In comparable summer cases, prediction markets on weather tend to concentrate heavily around the most climatologically common band until a late heat spike, cloud cover, or sea-breeze effect nudges the airport reading by a degree or two. For this market, that means the gap between 35°C and 36°C matters more than the broader summer narrative, because a single degree can decide the band at settlement.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that move the airport’s midday high: official forecasts, any heat advisories, and the timing of local convection or sea-breeze relief. From a funding-flow angle, book depth usually improves when deposits are frictionless and withdrawals are credible; markets on a payment-led venue tend to attract more size when users can top up quickly via Klarna, SEPA or USDC, rather than waiting on slower bank rails. That matters here because thin early liquidity can leave the quoted price sticky even when the weather outlook changes intraday.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.