Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo will record its peak daily heat at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that highest temperature. The settlement hinges on a single day’s meteorological data sourced from Wunderground, capturing the extreme heat typical of mid-summer in the Kanto region.

Historical July highs in Tokyo frequently land between 33°C and 35°C, framing the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing rather than a rational null. Recent Polymarket data shows 33°C as the frontrunner at 40%, with 34°C trailing at 28%, suggesting the crowd expects a hot day but has not yet priced the specific outcome in question [1]. Comparable cases from past summers show peak temperatures often occurring between 11 AM and 6 PM, aligning with the settlement window’s end time [2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat forecasts and any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover ahead of 16 July, as these directly influence peak temperatures. A recent travel advisory notes that peak heat in July is intense and warrants staying indoors during those hours, reinforcing the likelihood of high readings [2]. Funding flows into this book will depend on seamless on-ramps via Klarna and SEPA, as friction in depositing or withdrawal rails can dampen liquidity despite the clear weather catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).