Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record daily highs between 29°C and 33°C based on current forecasts for July 2026[1]. The market’s 0% YES probability for any extreme outlier reflects the absence of a confirmed heatwave, aligning with historical norms where mid-July highs in Tokyo typically hover around 30–35°C rather than breaking national records[2][6]. While Japan set a new all-time record of 41.2°C in Tamba City in late July 2025, Haneda’s urban location and coastal exposure usually moderate extremes compared to inland prefectures[8].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heatwave bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for Haneda, as sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns can alter peak temperatures within hours[3][5]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of the July 2026 nationwide average temperature report, expected in early August, which may confirm whether this month follows the record-breaking trend of July 2025[5]. Any announcement of a regional heat dome or emergency cooling advisories in the Kanto region would directly impact settlement, making these official bulletins the primary dependency for price movement.

The market’s liquidity is tied to funding flows from Klarna and SEPA on-ramps, where lower deposit friction correlates with deeper book depth during heatwave alerts. As withdrawal rails like USDC stabilize, traders can enter positions faster when Wunderground data shows temperatures approaching 35°C, turning speculative interest into actionable volume. This interplay between payment access and weather volatility defines the market’s current traction, with depth expanding only when real-time data confirms rising thermal stress.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).