Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Historical data for Haneda in July shows daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 33°C, with the average maximum hovering near 28°C and overnight lows rarely dipping below 23°C[4][5]. AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast for Haneda projects highs between 79°F and 89°F (approximately 26°C to 32°C), aligning with the long-term average of 87°F (31°C)[2]. Given that current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, traders are effectively betting that the temperature will fall outside the defined range, despite the historical consistency of summer heat in this period.

Key catalysts to monitor include JAL’s flight advisories for 10 July, which note potential delays or diversions due to adverse weather conditions at Haneda, suggesting volatile atmospheric patterns that could push temperatures higher or lower than expected[9]. Additionally, the Japan Meteorological Agency reports a 20% chance of precipitation during the midday window (12–18 UTC), which may suppress peak temperatures if cloud cover and rain intensify[6]. Traders should also watch for real-time updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, since on-ramp friction in depositing funds via Klarna or SEPA could delay participation in late-stage book adjustments, indirectly affecting market depth and liquidity flows that drive price discovery.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).