Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which serves as the binding resolution source for this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit capital before the final hours of the trading day in Japan. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal liquidity driving the book—a common pattern in weather markets where deposit friction and withdrawal rail availability shape participation depth more than meteorological uncertainty.

August temperatures at Haneda typically range between 28°C and 35°C, with the airport's coastal location moderating extremes compared to central Tokyo. Historical data from the past decade shows mid-August highs clustering around 31–33°C, though the 2010 heatwave pushed readings above 37°C. The current zero probability may reflect traders' difficulty accessing the market through standard payment rails rather than genuine forecast confidence; SEPA transfers and Klarna's deferred settlement options have historically driven traction in European weather prediction markets where capital commitment timing matters.

Meteorological forecasts become reliable only 10–14 days ahead, meaning meaningful catalyst shifts will occur in early August 2026 as seasonal patterns and upper-atmosphere pressure systems crystallise. Japan Meteorological Agency advisories and any issued heat warnings will signal whether traders should expect readings in the 28–31°C, 31–34°C, or 34°C-plus brackets. Market depth typically increases sharply once withdrawal confirmation timelines shorten and traders can verify USDC settlement mechanics against their local banking options.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).