Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a data-loading issue typical of markets with thin initial liquidity. This settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, leaving a narrow window for final position adjustments once actual conditions emerge.

August temperatures in Tokyo historically cluster between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The 2023 summer saw Haneda record 36.5°C on 15 August; 2022 peaked at 34.1°C on the same date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any band, a common pattern when markets lack sufficient deposit rails or when payment friction deters early positioning. Klarna's instalment settlement and SEPA direct transfers reduce friction for UK-based traders, but initial book depth depends on traders clearing these on-ramps first.

Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts will become actionable from late July 2026 onwards, typically 10–14 days before the event. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, will influence seasonal temperature patterns. USDC settlement options and low withdrawal fees on major stablecoins may accelerate liquidity once traders confirm deposit methods. Market depth will likely remain shallow until late August, when real-time temperature readings from Haneda begin narrowing the resolution range.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).