Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the highest reading rather than summary figures. August is Tokyo's warmest month, with historical highs regularly exceeding 35°C; the city experienced 37.5°C on 16 August 2023 and 37.0°C on 13 August 2022. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or insufficient liquidity to attract early positions. Comparable August temperature markets show meaningful trading only when deposit friction is minimal; traders on payment-integrated platforms with Klarna, SEPA, and USDC rails typically commit capital earlier, deepening order books and shifting probabilities away from extreme edges.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August, which typically narrow confidence intervals 7–10 days ahead. Heat wave warnings, issued when temperatures are forecast to exceed 35°C for multiple consecutive days, often correlate with sharper probability shifts in these markets. Recent summers have seen increased volatility from Pacific high-pressure systems; the JMA's mid-summer outlook, due in late July 2026, will be a key catalyst. Market depth will likely remain thin until early August, when withdrawal certainty improves and traders can execute deposits through faster on-ramps without settlement-window anxiety. Historical book depth for Tokyo temperature markets typically increases 5–7 days before settlement as traders lock in positions ahead of the actual observation window.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).