Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, settling to whichever Celsius range captures that highest reading. August in Tokyo typically sees daytime highs between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no conviction in any particular outcome band, likely reflecting the two-year forecast horizon and the inherent difficulty of pinpointing daily temperature ranges so far ahead.

Historical August temperatures at Haneda provide calibration: the station recorded 36.1°C on 11 August 2018 and 35.8°C on the same date in 2019, with 2023 seeing 34.2°C. Japan's meteorological agency has documented a warming trend in Tokyo's summer maxima over the past decade, though individual daily variation remains substantial. Comparable markets on seasonal weather patterns show that early-August Tokyo heat typically clusters in the 33–36°C band, with outlier days above 37°C occurring roughly once per five-year period.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Corporation forecasts released in late July 2026, which will provide the first reliable 10–15 day outlook. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 will influence regional atmospheric patterns; current NOAA projections suggest neutral conditions, though this remains subject to revision. Liquidity depth on this market depends on deposit accessibility through Klarna and SEPA rails, which typically see higher volumes during European trading hours when UK-based traders can fund positions without friction.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).