Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 1 August is normally a late-morning to mid-afternoon reading, and the market settles on the maximum reached before the noon UTC cut-off window closes. Tokyo’s August climate is typically hot and humid, with average highs around 31–33°C and forecasts for early August 2026 clustering in the low-to-high 30s Celsius, so the main question is not whether it will be warm, but how far the day’s peak can run before the settlement window ends.[1][10][12]

The current 0% implied probability for YES is easier to read as a liquidity and framing issue than a temperature call. August in Tokyo has a long record of oppressive heat, with historical August averages well above 30°C and occasional spikes into the mid-30s, including a record high of 37.3°C in Tokyo’s longer series.[2][3][11] In prediction markets, a zero print often appears when one side is thinly quoted rather than when the outcome is impossible, so funding frictions matter: deposits that clear quickly, low card or transfer fees, and easy withdrawal rails such as SEPA, Klarna-linked on-ramping, or USDC can determine whether traders add depth to the book before the day’s temperature path is known.

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning forecast updates and the observed hourly progression at Haneda, because the market is sensitive to whether cloud cover, rain bands, or a weak sea breeze cap the daily maximum before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. AccuWeather’s early-August view points to highs around 31°C for 1 August and a monthly range stretching into the high 80s Fahrenheit, which is consistent with a hot baseline but leaves room for meaningful intraday variation if the afternoon heats up faster than expected.[1][13] A stronger-than-forecast warm-up, or any public weather alert for the Tokyo area, would be the main trigger for repricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.