Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Taipei's highest temperature on 16 June 2026 will be recorded at Songshan Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. June in Taipei typically sees monsoon influence and pre-summer heat; daily highs average 31–33°C during this period, though extremes can reach 35°C or higher during heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for traders to lock positions before final readings are confirmed.

Historical June temperature patterns in Taipei show considerable year-to-year variation driven by the East Asian summer monsoon onset. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on mid-June dates ranged from 28°C during cooler, wetter years to 36°C during drier spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable markets on regional weather stations typically see deeper liquidity once deposit rails stabilise; SEPA transfers and Klarna payment options reduce friction for European traders entering positions, whilst USDC on-ramps appeal to those already holding stablecoins.

The key catalyst is the monsoon forecast issued by Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau in early June 2026. Traders should monitor whether seasonal rainfall patterns delay or intensify the onset of peak summer heat. Book depth will likely increase as the settlement date approaches and more traders gain confidence in deposit processes; currently, low traction reflects both the distant resolution window and payment infrastructure adoption curves on the platform.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.