Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport on 22 July is the settling event, and the market is currently pricing a very unusual distribution: the leading band on Polymarket is 35°C at 38%, with 36°C close behind at 32%, while the user-facing prompt says the crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is 0%[1]. That mismatch is less about a binary view of “will it happen” and more about how liquidity is being allocated across temperature brackets, so the useful signal is whether the tape is leaning towards a mid-30s afternoon peak rather than a break higher or a cooler ceiling[1][2].

For context, Taipei Songshan Airport is an inner-city airport in Songshan District and the official observation point named in the resolution rules, so short-lived local effects matter as much as broader synoptic weather[2]. In summer, markets on daily high temperatures usually track the same drivers: typhoon proximity, monsoon moisture, cloud cover, afternoon convection, and any late clearing that allows a brief spike. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC, the depth of the book is likely to reflect funding frictions more than pure weather conviction: deposits that clear quickly through cards or Klarna-style on-ramps can tighten spreads ahead of the midday cutoff, while slower SEPA transfers or withdrawal cash-outs into USDC tend to leave the order book thinner until the capital is in place.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.