Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces consistent daily maxima during late May, with historical records from Changi Airport showing temperatures typically between 32–34°C during this period. The settlement hinges on the single highest reading recorded across all times on 25 May 2026 at the airport's meteorological station, with resolution sourced directly from Wunderground's historical data once the day concludes.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent liquidity rather than climatic implausibility. May temperatures at Changi have ranged from 31.1°C to 35.0°C across the past decade, meaning outcomes spanning 31–35°C brackets carry genuine historical precedent. Traders assessing this market should reference the Meteorological Service Singapore's seasonal normals: May averages 32.3°C as a daily maximum, with inter-annual variance typically within ±1.5°C. No structural climate shift is anticipated between now and May 2026.

Book depth will depend on deposit friction and withdrawal rails available to UK-based traders. Klarna's payment integration reduces on-ramp friction for smaller positions, whilst SEPA transfers and USDC settlement options serve larger traders managing capital efficiency. The market's traction correlates directly with funding flow accessibility—deeper liquidity emerges once traders can move fiat or stablecoins without friction. Watch for any platform announcements regarding additional payment methods or fee structures, as these directly influence whether casual weather-prediction traders enter the book or remain sidelined by settlement friction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.