Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Today, the current forecast shows a hazy 28°C, with July highs typically ranging between 30°C and 32°C. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome, the market actually assigns a 99% chance to the 32°C range, making it the leading outcome at 44% probability, followed by 31°C at 25%.

Historical data frames this probability clearly: Singapore’s highest recorded temperature is 37°C, but daily highs in July rarely exceed 32°C or fall below 30°C. The average high in July 2026 is forecast between 29°C and 32°C, with overnight lows between 25°C and 27°C. This aligns with long-term averages where daily highs hover around 31°C, rarely dropping below 29°C or exceeding 33°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability likely reflects a misunderstanding of the market’s actual frontrunner, which is firmly 32°C.

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could push temperatures toward 33°C. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate stable conditions, but any unseasonal heatwave could alter the outcome. A recent BBC Weather report confirms current hazy conditions at 28°C, suggesting no immediate spike. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, timing is critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.